In this article will discuss the main predictions of the end of the coronavirus in Russia, in Europe (Italy, Germany, France and Spain), as well as several approximate and exact dates about the pandemic COVID-19.
Today the whole world is in panic about pandemic coronavirus that has already killed more than 10 thousand people. Lethal infection was first diagnosed in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has changed the lives of millions of people. Countries close borders, people are stocking up food and drug administration introduced strict quarantine measures. Dangerous virus COVID-19 became number one news on all TV channels that only reinforces the fears of the population. To find out what will happen next, and when, finally, the outcome of the pandemic coronavirus, consider the predictions of virologists.
Strict quarantine, which administered all developed countries, is an unprecedented global response to the deadly disease. However, evaluation of its effectiveness in the fight against coronavirus infection diverge.
Most of the scientists agree that to stop the pandemic will not work up until the coronavirus infection have been ill from 40 to 70 percent of the population. According to leading epidemiologists, this will happen already during the first wave of proliferation COVID-19. The first wave is expected to last from 6 to 12 months. However, according to other forecasts, this period may take several difficult years of humanity.
In any case, after the first wave of infection, the virus is likely to remain among the major threats to health. It is important to understand that the well-established infectious diseases behave very differently than a new pandemic viruses. Already the second wave of the coronavirus according to the forecasts will differ in the following features:
First and foremost, the changing age distribution of the infection. Now the high mortality rate from coronavirus due solely to the cases of the elderly. One study in Wuhan showed that 81% of deaths occur in people older than 60 years, and 1 out of 1023 infections claimed the life of a person under the age of 20.
Because this is a new virus, are at risk of infection for everyone, regardless of age. This can be compared with the measles, which after the appearance has also been detected in people of all ages, but killed mainly patients older than 65 years. However, the measles infection provides lifelong immunity. When most kids had the measles in childhood, the epidemic receded, and the adults began to get extremely rare.
We do not know whether infection with the novel coronavirus long-lasting immunity. If so, then something like this happens. In the end, almost all adults are immune, and new infections are concentrated among children.
Unfortunately, none of the coronaviruses, common now among people, does not give lifelong immunity. High probability that this feature have COVID-19. However, subsequent infections will almost certainly be less serious than the first as people accumulate partial immunity. Examples include new strains of influenza, which, after the first wave of infections, reduce the intensity of symptoms and level of mortality.
To date, the average mortality rate of coronavirus is 3.44 percent. However, over time this indicator will decline.
Increasing population immunity will also reduce the susceptibility of the population to the pathogen. The force of infection is reduced. The epidemic is like fire: when the fuel in abundance, they are wildly raging, and when it becomes a little slow smolder. In this regard, after the first acute phase reduces the risk of disease even among people with no immunity.
The main factor that will reduce the risks, — the invention of a vaccine and effective drugs. Today has developed a combination of drugs in order to cope with infection. It has been proposed and successfully tested in China, which has drastically reduced the lethality of the virus in this country for the last month. Also in China, over preclinical testing of a vaccine against COVID-19, the effectiveness of which is already podtverjdena animal studies.
The exact date when will the epidemic COVID-2019, could not name one. However, having studied the history of previous outbreaks of viral diseases, it can be assumed that the first wave will last from 6 to 12 months.
Australian experts have developed seven scenarios of the spread of coronavirus outside of China.
On average the predictions of virologists first and most dangerous wave of the disease worldwide will last about 18 months. This period will be the most complex from the point of view of the epidemiological situation.
The situation in Russia today is not as heavy as the epicenter of the epidemic. Just different regions of the country identified 253 infected. Under the supervision of physicians there are about 30 thousand people. Most of the infections in Russia are associated with the arrival of people from countries with unfavourable epidemiological situation. Measures to close the borders for foreigners as well as quarantine measures, according to the forecasts of physicians, will allow to avoid the Italian scenario.
The well-known doctor, Alexander Myasnikov said that in the summer Russians can forget about the outbreak of coronavirus infection. According to him, the panic in Russia is inappropriate and harmful. Also, the doctor believes that the psyche of the people and the country’s economy will not survive more than a month of isolation.
But there are less optimistic forecasts. So, the chief doctor of the hospital in Kommunarka Denis Protsenko, does not exclude a scenario in which the acute phase of the epidemic will last until September.
Despite the fact that the epidemic began in China, the number of deaths of patients from COVID-19 in Italy alone has already exceeded the Chinese mortality. This suggests that the epicenter of the pandemic, today is located in Europe. Even the best estimates are that heavy epidemiological situation in Europe will remain low until mid-summer. The experts who believe that to expect the full completion of the epidemic in the summer is not necessary.
The most optimistic scenario for Italy is that the closure of borders and severe restrictions will soon yield results. The peak value of cases per day was recorded on March 16, when the number of new cases approached 3000. Under favourable conditions, the daily increase of cases gradually cease to grow since the beginning of April.
The pessimistic scenario indicates a situation in Hubei province. The peak of the epidemic occurred there about two weeks after the city was completely closed. In this scenario, at the peak of the epidemic in Italy, the number of new confirmed cases in one day to reach 6000. In this case, the number of cases daily will continue to grow until the middle or even the end of April.
Epidemiologists around the world unanimously consider the situation in Italy the most dangerous to date.
The number of people infected with coronavirus in Germany is already close to 14 thousands. In this context, the Robert Koch Institute has changed its risk assessment for the population of Germany. Scientists do not make predictions regarding the number of cases, but I think that the level of danger for people in Germany is very high. In particular, one of the leading virologists says that the difficult situation in the country will continue for about two years.
Another country which introduced strict quarantine because of the coronavirus is France. On the territory of the country identified by nearly 11 thousand infected. According to experts, the French government responded to the threat more quickly than in Italy. In this regard, the French scenario of the epidemic is much more optimistic. Most epidemiologists believe that the number of cases per day in France will start to decrease already after 2 weeks.
Today, Spain ranks 4th in the number of infected coronavirus infection in the world, in this connection, the government has decided to introduce a strict quarantine. Out of the house, without probable cause, threatened the Spaniards with a fine of 30 thousand euros. Total in the country more than 20 thousand confirmed cases COVID-19.
To make forecasts for the development of the epidemic, experts from Valencia University conducted a sequencing of the Spanish version of coronavirus. The result showed that the genome of the virus mutates. Samples from Wuhan are very different from those that were taken from the Spanish infected. Scientists believe this is normal and I expect that multiple mutations of the virus will lead to its weakening.
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